Monday, December 10, 2007

When They Going to Learn?

Ever since August 25, 2005, when Katrina made landfall, they've been calling for more frequent, and bigger, storms. Global Warming was responsible, of course. But, here's a shocker, the storms have been less frequent, and less severe, since Katrina. And I haven't heard anyone explain why that is.

That hasn't stopped the forecasters though, who are calling for.... drum roll please... more activity next hurricane season:

FORT COLLINS, Colo. (AP) - Hurricane forecaster William Gray called Friday for seven Atlantic hurricanes, three of them major, during the 2008 season.

Gray's team at Colorado State University issued the prediction six months before the June-November season begins.

The preliminary forecast calls for a total of 13 named storms in the Atlantic. It also says it is probable that at least one major hurricane will hit the U.S. coastline.

"Despite fairly inactive 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons, we believe that the Atlantic basin is still in an active hurricane cycle," Gray said. "This active cycle is expected to continue at least for another decade or two."

Gray has been forecasting hurricanes for more than two decades, and his predictions are watched closely by emergency responders and others in coastal areas.

The predictions are not always on the mark. Gray initially forecast nine hurricanes for the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, and later lowered that prediction to eight. Only six hurricanes formed....
Now I'm not saying the forecasters are stupid, or not doing their jobs, but if you can't predict one small component of the climate six months out, what chance is there that you can accurately predict what will be happening with the whole system 100 years in the future?