Charles Krauthammer paints a clear picture of where Obama's at, and where he's going. You should read the whole thing:
What do you do if you can’t run on your record — on 9 percent unemployment, stagnant growth, and ruinous deficits as far as the eye can see? How to run when you are asked whether Americans are better off than they were four years ago and you are compelled to answer no?
Play the outsider. Declare yourself the underdog. Denounce Washington as if the electorate hasn’t noticed that you’ve been in charge of it for nearly three years.
But above all: Find villains.