Tuesday, November 04, 2008


So remember: In about 15 hours or so the rumors and leaks are going to start – It’s an Obama landslide! Exit polls show him winning North Carolina by 15 points! In Vermont, McCain will be the first major party candidate not to break into double digits…

It’s all rubbish. Exit polls skew Dem. In 2004, they overstated Kerry’s support by 5.5 points. Which doesn’t sound a lot. But, given that there were only ten states where the margin of victory was less than 5%, that was enough to make Kerry briefly appear the winner. The point of all the afternoon leakage is to depress turnout in the Florida panhandle and points west. Don’t fall for it.